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Q&A with Dutton & Associates' Sherry Grisewood The term "healthcare" is no
doubt a broad one, ranging from medical devices to genomics, but
for Dutton & Associates analyst, Sherry Grisewood, CFA,
there is a common theme that cuts through many of the healthcare
companies she covers: technology or, more specifically, what she
calls "enabling technologies." Ms. Grisewood has over
25 years experience as both a sell-side analyst and an independent
analyst in independent special situations and small caps, with experience
at such firms as DLJ and EF Hutton. She believes that "body
heal yourself" will be the direction of medicine over the next
10-20 years and those companies with technologies geared toward
self healing will be at the forefront. What do you focus on in healthcare? I like to look at areas that
represent a "sea change" in either thinking or practice.
Areas that I think are really exciting right now are enabling technologies
that lead to less intervention - that lead to optimizing therapeutic
response, for example, and or which build upon the discoveries in
genomics such as determining treatments based on a patient's
genetic profile. There's a lot that's
gone on in healthcare over the last three to five years that probably
makes the area as a whole as exciting or maybe more exciting than
what it was in its heyday of the mid-1980s. In the 1980s we were
talking about monoclonal antibodies as "magic bullets".
Now thanks to genomics, we're looking at the nuances of disease.
I think ultimately we're going to be hearing a new nomenclature
talking about utilizing the body's ability to self heal. What do mean by "self
heal"? I'm referring to utilizing and augmenting
the body's own healing powers as being an ultimate goal of next generation
medicine. Take tissue engineering, for example. Ten years ago tissue engineering
as a medical discipline wasn't even in existence. Companies were either
developing materials like artificial skin, or proteins as drug candidates,
not recognizing that the body's response requires both the structurally
correct material and correct signalling protein at the same time. But
now when we talk about tissue engineering we're speaking about combining
the sciences from those two areas and making something that can help the
body repair itself, all the while better understanding that the body's
structure plays an integral role with signalling proteins It involves
less intervention while augmenting what the body would do as a natural
process. Taking pharmaceuticals, as an
example, we have seen the development of very powerful new pharmaceuticals
from new chemical entities over the past number of years. Now we're
looking at pharmaceuticals that come from more natural sources or
that are intertwined and synergistic with the body's natural
function. So I think we're on a wave of establishing some broad
new trends. I would describe them as a general path leading to the
concept that "body heal yourself" will become the direction
of medicine over the next 10 or 20 years. What companies have you been
following that can capitalize on these trends? Paradigm Medical (PMED) is one
unique company that has developed an enabling technology to treat
cataract disease. Cataract disease is the number one outpatient
medical treatment in the US, and also the number one dollar reimbursement
charge on Medicare. For the past20 or 25 years, cataracts have been
removed by by ultrasound phacoemuslification with virtually no change
in that procedure over that time, even though there can be a large
number of complications. Paradigm has developed a laser phacoemulsification
system that provides an energy source to break up the cataract in
the eye with much less pain, much less intervention, and much fewer
complications after surgery. That represents a quantum leap in how
a technique is done and can theoretically over time displace ultrasound
as the preferred method. That's taking laser technology
and putting it into an application that has never been looked at
before--and helping make medicine less interventional. What other companies would
be representative? In terms of using micromolecular
biology as a starting point for new approaches, I think AVI Biopharma
(AVI) up in Portland, Oregon, is an excellent case in point The
company has two broad technologies. One is Antisense, which essentially
decodes the DNA or RNA message sequencing and utilizes that information
on which to base therapeutic drug activity. By either blocking a
bad message from getting reproduced or correcting a mis-message,
intervening at the micromolecular level can be more specific than
traditional drug treatments. That's taking technology of the
tiniest part of what goes on in the body, at the DNA level, and
using it to develop a therapeutic approach. This is an example of how we
are learning more and more about the intricacies of what makes cells
function and are able to extract optimized products which potentially
have better specificity, with better side-effect profiles, and higher
therapeutic outcome. Over the longer term, you can reduce medical
costs by lowering unwanted consequences and better targeting of
specific disease characteristics while providing better outcomes
for patients. There certainly appear to
be a broad range of enabling technologies - from laser devices to
genetic decoding. The range, indeed, is broad.
It also extends to technologies that change the way medicine is
practiced in a practical sense such as protecting the safety of
health care workers from the risks of needle sticks. The federal
government has mandated that the medical profession track needle
sticks by device and by incident and adopt the use of safety needles.
While we have had a plethora of attempts to develop effective, cost-effective
easy-to-use passive safety needles, because of the dynamics of the
industry, a lot of that research ended up shelved in one form or
another. But one young company, Retractable
Technologies (RVP), has persevered and developed a truly elegant
safety needle that accomplishes what everybody wants. It's
passive, the worker doesn't have to do anything to make it
work. It retracts the needle before it leaves the patient, so there's
absolutely no risk of sheathing anything that comes out of the body,
and it's cost effective. That's using technology
to address a different kind of important need in the healthcare
marketplace--again under pressure from cost, but but not at the
expense of health care worker safety. Are valuation methodologies
unique in healthcare given the uncertain nature of a lot of new
developments? Valuations are always in the
eye of the beholder, I like to say. The fashion for various valuation
methods comes and goes. In the mid-1980s, there was the well-known
or infamous, some might say, work done supporting a discounted dividend
model for biotech companies that extended out 10 years, putting
tremendous valuations on these companies. Out of that entire group
valued in the work, I think there were only about three companies
made it to have a commercial product. With operating companies and the major pharmaceuticals, valuation is fairly cut and dry and uses pretty traditional valuation methods like price to sales and price to earnings--and the DDM when there are operating results. But with start-up and emerging growth companies with new technologies or markets, valuation is less clear and has to be looked at on a relatively individual basis. You have to take a wide variety factors and assumptions into consideration and at the same time, recognize the inherent risks of an FDA approval process. This usually means that time for approval is substantially longer than what everybody would hope and think, and that the market penetration usually takes longer. Even with big marketing partners, it's still an arduous task. I really feel that even more perhaps than communications technology and computer technology, valuing start-up and young health care companies can be more art than science.
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